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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStillwater Downtown Plan December 1987STILLWATER DOWNTOWN PLAN Downtown Stillwater 1987 Conditions and Analysis: Economic Analysis December 1987 Table of Contents Page SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Housing Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Office Space Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Calmer---ial Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Review of Past Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Stillwater Comprehensive Plan . . . . . . . . . 7 National Main Street Center, Resource Team Report for Stillwater, MN . . . . . . 9 The Economic Impact of the Woodland Lakes Mall in the City of Stillwater, MN . . . . 11 Economic Development Strategy, Phase I and II. . 12 Phase I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Phase II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 DEFINITION OF STILLWATER'S SPHERE OF INFLUENCE . . . . . 17 Trade Area Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Income and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Age Distribution of Trade Area . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Schooling in the Trade Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 REVIEW OF PAST 'TRENDS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS . . . . . . 24 Description of Downtown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Cam►e.rcial Mix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Trend Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Retail Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Table of Contents (Page 2) Page SURVEY SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Resident Survey Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Visitor Survey Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Summary. •. . . . . . . . . . 35 Downtown Worker Survey Summa.ry. . . . . . . 36 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 SUMMARY OF OTHER PRIMARY RESEARCH . . . . . . . . . . . 39 FocusGroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Perceptions of Downtown Stillwater . . . 40 Who shops in downtown Stillwater?. . . . . . . 41 Physical Condition . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Development Opportunities. . . . . . . . . . . 43 Downtown Retail Opportunity. . . . . . . . . . 44 Light Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Office Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Transportation Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Parking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Bridge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 North End . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 City Involvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Office Space Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Survey Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Housing Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Table of Contents (Page 3) Page Survey of Similar Communities. . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Canparison Camnunities . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Ethnic Theme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Shoe Store . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Children's Specialty Shop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Theatre/Community Building . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Health Food Store/Coffee, Tea Specialty Shop . . . . 65 Non Alchohol Cooler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Floral shop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Marina Store . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Laundromat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Hospitality Center and Local Coordinator . . . . . . 69 Artist's Village . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Hotel Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Gourmet Food Shop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 LIST OF FIGURES Figure No. Title Page 1 Age Distribution of Stillwater 21 LIST OF MAPS Maw No. Title Page 1 Local Sphere of Influence 18 LIST OF TABLES Table No. Title Page 1 City of Stillwater -Sphere of Influence. Population and Income 19 2 Per Capita Adjusted Gross Inane Comparison, 1984 20 3 Percent of Residents Over Age 25 who Canpleted College 22 4 Total Retail Sales Comparison City of Stillwater and Washington County, 1980-1982 27 LIST OF TABLES (Page 2) Figure No. Title Page 5 Total Retail Sales Comparison Stillwater/Oak Park Heights and Washington County, 1980-1986 28 6 Retail Sales Data For Stillwater By Major Retail Category, 1982-1986 29 7 Camnunities Selected For F�cploratory Survey 58 8 Comparison of Hotel Roans Per Capita For Selected Canmunities 72 9 Origin of Overnight Visitors 74 SUMMARY AND Rfr-OMKENDNPIONS Stillwater's downtown has undergone considerable change over the past 15 years, from a Central Business District that serves primarily local residents to one that relies signifi- cantly on non -local support. This change downtown is most evident in the growth of Miscellaneous Retail establishments and Forting and Drinking Places, both of which owe their sur- vival, in large part, to a healthy and growing local tourist trade. According to an Economic Impact Study completed in June, 1986 Miscellaneous Retail establishments in the City of Stillwater increased by 285 percent between 1970 and 1985, while Eating and Drinking Places showed a gain of 100 percent over the same time span. While a few of the new miscella- neous retail shops are activities that are primarily fre- quented by residents (i.e. jewelry and sporting goods) the majority of the new businesses are antique stores, gift shops, and other miscellaneous shopping good stores, all of which are mostly patronized by non-residents. This increase in non -local patronage downtown has coincided with a gradual loss of resident or more local market -oriented activities. To be sure, a great deal of local market oriented activity still exists downtown but same of it has been lost to a developing commercial district along Highway 36 at the periphery of Stillwater. For the most part, the retailers on Highway 36 have established themselves as serving the general community market, while downtown retailers have moved toward serving a market which is predo- minately from outside the immediate community. The Economic Impact Study indicates that this change in market patterns will likely continue only at a slower pace, with the replace- ment of more traditional activities downtown (i.e. hardware stores, drug stores, etc.) by additional visitor or tourist - oriented activity. It is important, however, that Downtown Stillwater continues to cater to the local market. The visitor or tourist market is highly seasonal and it is doubtful that many of the shops that are otherwise tourist -related can survive the slow winter months without some local patronage. This point was emphasized by downtown's decision makers during Focus Group sessions held in August, 1987. The Focus Group participants also pointed out the need to keep Stillwater a "real town". Stillwater residents, according to the Focus Groups, often feel like their town has been taken over by the tourists, regional shoppers, and other non -locals. Residents need to feel Downtown Stillwater is still there for then if the Central Business District is going to exude a sense of community, or as the Focus Group so aptly put it, a "real town" atmosphere. Despite the loss of local market -oriented retail business, Downtown Stillwater remains important to local residents. A wide variety on non -retail establishments exist downtown entailing a broad range of economic activities. Those acti- vities include manufacturing establishments, finance, insurance and real estate establishments and a wide variety of services establishments (i.e. beauty/barber shops, legal services, social services etc). This diversity should be maintained to assure local patronage and a more stable down- town economy. Manufacturing is often questioned as a proper land use for downtown. Noise, truck traffic and parking are frequently cited as detractors from the downtown's shopping atmosphere. Nevertheless, manufacturing activity brings people downtown and retailers benefit greatly from their lunchtime shopping trips and patronage of downtown eating establishments. 4 While heavy industry which employs lower numbers of people may be unsuitable for a downtown location, there are a number of light manufacturing types of development that would be most complimentary and compatible with traditional downtown activities. According to the Focus Group participants, the ideal type of light industry for Downtown Stillwater would be one that is clean (no pollution), does not have a lot of daily customers (would not add to parking problems), and does not require many trucking services (would not add to traffic congestion). To attract these types of industries, the Focus Groups felt that reasonably priced space, in the form of an incubator building, should be made available. The basic charges of this portion of Stillwater's Downtown Plan are to identify new development opportunities for the City's Central Business District. Opportunities that represent a great range of activities that will maintain and promote the downtown's diversified economy. An economy that enjoys the prosperty made possible by non -local trade, but also values local patronage. A brief description of these opportunities follows. Housing Development The Focus Groups stressed the importance of developing housing in the downtown area and suggested the former prison site as the best location for such development. The groups felt that both rental units and condoniniums would be feasible in Downtown Stillwater if adequate parking were to be available. Interviews with apartments complex managers in the city of Stillwater further evidence this ne-ad for downtown rental units. Senior Citizen housing, especially for low -to -medium priced units, seen to be in strong demand. But even more high-priced apartments appear to be a possibility. 3 Given the development of condominiums along the St. Croix River in other nearby cannunities, it appears Stillwater's Central Business District could also support such housing development. Office Space Development Quality office space is scarce downtown and it is the belief of Focus Group participants that if it were to be provided a strong demand would exist. This, however, is counter to the opinions of several realtors and office space managers in the Stillwater area. It is their belief that an abundance of quality office space is already available elsewhere in the area and that downtown would not be able to compete with these other developments in terms of parking space and room for expansion. There is also some questions whether or not downtown office space would be cost-canpetitive with can - parable space offered outside the Central Business District. None of those interviewed see a need for additional office space downtown now, or in the foreseeable future. A new office development on the north end (possibly the former prison site) would offer sufficient space for parking. An investment of this magnitude would probably be necessary to compete with office complexes outside the Central Business District. Otherwise, there appears to be sufficient office space of moderate quality available downtown at present. 4 Commercial Opportunities In addition to housing, the following commercial oppor- tunities are recamlended as possible for a downtown location. - Shoe Store - Children's Specialty Shop - Theater/Camlunity Building - Health Food Store/Coffee, Tea, Specialty Shops - Non -Alcohol Cooler - Floral Shop - Gourmet Food Shops - Marina Store - Laundromat - Hospitality Center - Hotel - Artist's Village For a brief description on why the above carmercial develop- ments are thought to be feasible, please refer to the Econanic Analysis portion of the Stillwater Downtown Plan. In conclusion, the future appears to be bright for Stillwater's Central Business District. The City has the luxury of considering "what type" and "how much" development should occur in the CBD and does not have to dwell on the problem of disinvestment as many communities do. This down- town planning process reveals that local officials are not taking the responsibility of guiding future development in the CBD lightly. We firmly believe that as long as the City can facilitate a balance of activities among all potential CBD users, the district will continue to prosper and remain the vibrant "real town" that so many have cane to enjoy. 5 INTRODUCTION This report consists of an analysis of the economy of Stillwater's Central Business District (CBD). The general objec- tives of this analysis included to analyze past and current economic activity in downtown Stillwater and to project likely future trends in economic activity in the CBD. We have also identified and evaluated specific types of develop- ment opportunities (both camnercial and noncanmercial) for downtown Stillwater and made recommendations of those most likely to succeed in the CBD. Finally, the results of our analysis are interpreted in terms of impacts and rela- tionships to other elements of the downtown plan. The econanic analysis is organized as follows. First a review of relevant past work will be presented. This will be followed:by a definition of Stillwater's local sphere of influence based on a location gravity model. This discussion is followed by an analysis of past trends and current con- ditions of the CBD. This review of secondary data will be followed by a discussion of the primary data collected and analyzed. This includes a discussion of the resident, visitor, and downtown worker surveys conducted in August and September of 1987. Several other primary data sources were utilized to analyze downtown business persons perceptions of the economy, office space demand, and demand for housing in the CBD. The final primary data source to be utilized was an analysis of the development trends in other similar cities around the Midwest. These segments of the econanic analysis are followed by spe- cific recommendations of what have been determined to be development opportunities that can be supported in Stillwater's Central Business District. 0 BCONOMIC ANALYSIS Review of Past Work In an attempt to provide a foundation for this study of Stillwater's downtown, a review of existing documents related to downtown development was undertaken. The documents reviewed include: Stillwater Comprehensive Plan, National Main Street Center: Resource Team Report For Stillwater, Minnesota, The Econcmic Impact of the Woodland Lakes Mall on the City of Stillwater, Minnesota as well as Phase I and II of the Stillwater Area Economic Develoo ment Strategy. Stillwater Comprehensive Plan: The Stillwater Comprehensive Plan was prepared in August of 1979, so it is somewhat dated. The Comprehensive Plan suggests that plan concepts for for the CBD have been essen- tially the same since the first plan was prepared for Stillwater in 1918. Traffic and parking problems were high- lighted in the 1979 plan and recommendations for alleviating those problems that are now closer to reality (i.e. new wisconsin/Minnesota bridge etc.) were suggested. Stillwater's proximity to the Twin Cities metropolitan area was suggested to be Stillwater's greatest economic asset. The plan suggests, "the scenic and recreational assets of the St. Croix River region will not go unnoticed by people wanting the best of both worlds including convenience to a large urban center with jobs and recreational/cultural diver- sity and convenience to the open spaces and natural environ- ment of the St. Croix Valley". 7 The downtown plan recommended many economic and development strategies for the CBD that are still applicable today. They include: * Development of suitable housing for the elderly. * Improved boat docking facilities along the river to maximize summer potential for attracting custo- mers for cafes, entertainment spots, and general increased usage of the CBD. * Further development of the Downtown should recognize the various functions (retail, financial, general office, housing, entertainment, etc.) to avoid improper mixtures that detract fran the full econcxnic potential of proper locations. Certain uses such as lumber yards, car dealerships, and centrally located service stations should be encouraged to leave the Downtown for better locations and to make room for expansion of more appropriate and intense activities. * Future Downtown development should be of the highest quality possible. Stillwater's location on the St. Croix: River, which is now part of the Wild and Scenic River System, dictates that the town develop and maintain a high quality environment which will be in keeping with the area's superior natural attractions. A high quality environment will excite people to return to Stillwater to shop, vacation, and live. * Preservation of all buildings that are structurally sound and that can be utilized in some manner. 0 National Main Street Center, Resource Team Report for Stillwater, Minnesota: In spring of 1984 a Resource Team Report developed by the National Main street Center was presented to the Stillwater City Council. Resource team members represented over 25 years of direct experience in small city downtown revitaliza- tion activities and another 10 years in related historic pre- servation and cam -unity conservation experience. While the group was made up of four outsiders who were in Stillwater for only three and one-half days all four members had been well briefed in advance and were well acquainted with the issues facing downtown Stillwater as well as some of the unique aspects of the caTmunity. Sane of the general development recommendations made by the Main Street Team include: General Development/Adaptive Reuse Opportunities in the Downtown. A. Retail. 1. The resource team sees additional retail oppor- tunities "across the board" aimed at the local native market, the general Stillwater market, the Twin Cities extended specialty market, and the upper Midwest tourist/recreational market. 2. The immediate retail growth should be aimed at the more stable local markets. 3. Will .require market research and promotional efforts beyond present practices/levels of sophistication to reach market opportunity effectively. E 4. Opportunities should be thoroughly explored to expand/strengthen existing business operations as well as attracting new operations. B. Office. 1. The resource team sees tremendous future office potential for the entire Stillwater area as well as downtown, including the attraction of large office tenants frcan the Twin Cities area; this phenamenon is likely to follow the increasing in -migration of upper -echelon white collar mana- gement. 2. At this time Stillwater lacks any vehicle to assist serious larger -scale office tenant relo- cation and development downtown. C. Housing. 1. The market for housing downtown is significant in the view of the resource team but requiring a much 'nigher understanding of market demand/trends because of the highly specialized nature of that potential. 2. The resource team sees opportunities for exten- sive up -scale upper story conversions aimed at young singles, "empty-nestor" couples--45 to 60 years old, 'Rain Cities professinals and im- migrating young childless couples. 10 3. Also opportunities for high to moderate cost multi -family (rental?) housing around the periphery of downtown; needs to be done with more cost/quality control than sane other recent similar development. 4. Despite other strong market potential, the resource team believes Main Street should explore some moderate income multi -family housing development aimed at area senior citi- zens; this would meet appropriate local needs and would help moderate sane of the alienating changes transpiring downtown. The Economic Impact of the Woodland Lakes Mall on the City of Stillwater, MN: Another recent study of the Stillwater economy was an analy- sis of the economic impact of the proposed Woodland Lakes Mall (not centrally located in the CBD) on the City of Stillwater. This mall is in the process of being developed outside of the City's CBD. A summary of the major findings of this analysis are as follows: Actual estimates of the economic impact of the mall on down- town merchant's sales varied depending upon the type of acti- vity. Gift shop owners suggested the impact would be rather minimal, perhaps reducing the rate of growth in their sales or, at worst, causing a minor decline (5%). Similar estima- tes were also forwarded by the other miscellaneous shopping goods managers. In all these cases, the respondents felt that they were typical of their industry and, therefore, did not expect other like businesses to be impacted differently. 11 For the majority of the other stores contacted, their predic- tion of impact on sales were startlingly consistent. Nearly all suggested sales reductions of 20-25 percent in the first year would be realized. This was true of the clothing stores, shoe stores, sporting goods stores, department stores. The issue of relocations to the mall is also a con- cern because of the possible vacancies this could create in the CBD. In summary, the adverse impacts of the mall will cause about 60 to 75 jobs to be lost in the downtown and will cause the vacating of three to five storefronts due to failure of the business and, perhaps, an additional two to four due to relo- cations. Much of this will not occur immediately and, as a result, will not appear as being severe. Rather, the impact is more likely to be expressed in higher rates of turnover in ownership of businesses, an occasional closure, and surpassed property values for the downtown. The construction of the mall will accelerate the trend that rs - a more tour Economic Development Strategy, Phase I and II: Phase I and Phase II of Stillwater's overall Economic Development Strategy included an in depth look at the issues facing Stillwater in terms of its economy as well as suggesting specific economic activity that could be expanded or attracted to Stillwater. A summary of the finding of these analyses as they relate to the CBD will now be presented. 12 Phase I The principal factors and issues which have affected and will continue to affect economic development in the Stillwater Area were identified through a series of exploratory inter- views, a review of published materials, and observations. These principal factors and issues, which have been described in terms of potentials and constraints, may be summarized as follows: * Quality of Life - The high quality of life in the Stillwater Area represents a potential for economic development in terms of the ability to attract people and investment into the community. However, this is a strength which will require investment and caution to maintain and preserve. * Minnesota Business Climate - Minnesota has an image as a high tax State and one in which the costs of doing business are higher than they could or should be. For the Stillwater Area this problam is compounded because Wisconsin is perceived as having a better environment for business. However, in pursuing economic develop- ment, the Stillwater Area should accept the state's business climate as a "given," and emphasize the com- munity's other_ assets and target activities accor- dingly. * Local Business Climate - The local business climate, including receptivity to and cooperation with new business and industry, is crucial to a successful eco- nomic development effort. An improved business cli- mate in the Stillwater Area is making it more attractive for economic development. While a coopera- tive approach is encouraged, it is important to think in terms of quality and facilitating economic develop- ment which is appropriate for the community. 13 * Proximity to the Twin Cities - The Stillwater Area's economic development efforts can benefit significantly because of the cammunity's proximity to the Twin Cities. Potential linkages with existing businesses and industries in the Twin Cities should be exploited. Also, the carumunity should use its access to the resources of the 'win Cities as a major consideration in its strategy for economic development. Phase II The Targeted Industries Analysis presented in Phase II of this report identifies the types of economic activity which could be attracted to, or expanded, in the Stillwater .Area. These are the activities toward which those responsible for marketing should be concentrating their efforts. Service activities have been and should continue to be a major source of economic growth nationally and in Minnesota. The Stillwater Area should target those service activities which are, or have the potential to be, largely or entirely "basic" (i.e., serving non -local markets). Service industries which are becoming increasingly basic include advertising, accounting, architecture and engineering, banking and financial services, education and training, employment services, health care, franchising, insurance, consulting of all kinds, leasing, transportation, computer services, and communication. As a strategy in targeting ser- vice firms, the Stillwater Area may do best to attract small specialized service firms to the community or to encourage start-ups by people already in the community. The principals of small specialty service firms are likely to be well- educated, professional types to wham the Stillwater Area and the lifestyles available there are very appealing. 14 Market -oriented activities which may offer opportunities for expansion in the Stillwater Area were identified using the comparative economic base analysis technique. Market - oriented activities which have below -average employment levels in the Stillwater Area include: Veterinary services Radio & TV broadcasting Motor vehicles & auto equipment wholesale Electrical goods wholesale Miscellaneous non -durable goods wholesale New and used car dealers Wanen's ready-to-wear stores Furniture and home furnishings Security and commodity services Insurance agents, brokers and services Laundry, cleaning and garment services Photographic studios (portrait) Nursing and personal care facilities :Hospitals Conclusion: This brief summary of the results and recommendations of the various reports pertaining to the economic state of Stillwater, especially its downtown point to some interesting conclusions. The first being that the major and persistent problem perceived in Stillwater's downtown is traffic congestion and parking. Certainly this traffic problem is real and annoying but is also a symptom of the health and vibrancy of the CBD. This physical problem identified in a plan almost 10 years old can be addressed through physical modification of the CBD's infrastructure. Such changes would be welcome by visitors, residents and CBD employees alike. 15 Another more poignant issue that has been facing Stillwater's Central Business District is the issue of the CBD's meta- morphosis from a primarily locally based market to a more tourist/visitor and specialty market base. Given Stillwater's proximity to the Twin Cities and its incredible gift of natural features, this change was imminent. The for- ces of the suburban shopping mall only hastened the change in the case of Stillwater's CBD. However, the question "Who is the downtown for?", still remains. This question should most appropriately be addressed by City officials and .residents of Stillwater in terms of future CBD policy. It has been proven, however, that the majority of the population will not economically subsidize nostalgia or historic atmosphere regardless of how unique. This explains why shopping malls flourish on the outskirts of a very unusual and historic City, such as Stillwater. From a strictly economic perspective, this shift to a visitor based economy is simply unstopable. Therefore, the City should accept this change in the economic base of the CBD and promote the uniqueness that has helped hasten the transformation. On the other hand, the City must recognize that the CBD is not exclusively used by visitors and attempt to promote some balance in the types of activities it supports. In other words the CBD should not be encouraged to serve exclusively the tourist market. As an example, a specialty gourmet food shop that primarily serves the tourist market in the summer could also provide catering services to the local market year round. A "Rivertown Cooler" non-alcholic drink product could be an effective marketing tool for historic Stillwater as a whole, while still providing jobs and expanding the local economic base. We reco mend that the City recruit and sup- port new tourist based industries that also have some tie to the local economy. This strategy will help elevite some of the seasonal highs and lows that "tourist only" retailers now face and add stability and diversity to the local economy. 16 DEFINITION OF STTraMm>' a' S SPHERE OF INEWENCE Stillwater has several spheres of influence. The trade area as far as visitors/tourists are concerned includes primarily the Twin Cities metropolitan area. However, Stillwater attracts visitors form Western Wisconsin, the State of Minnesota, and fran around the world. The local trade area, however, is what will be defined here. As shown in Map 1 the local sphere of influence includes roughly Marine on St. Croix to the north, Sanerset to the east, Bayport to the south and includes only up to Stillwater's coporate boundaries to the west. Trade Area Definition The means of defining Stillwater's trade area was an economic gravity model called "Reilly's Law of Retail Gravitation". Basically, the empirical model determines the City's trade area by taking into account the size and distance of car- peting urban centers. The theory being a custaner patronizes a community, in direct proportion to the population of the community and the distance from where he or she resides. Generally, people are willing to drive a longer distance to a larger urban center, primarily because of the greater diver- sity in goods and services it provides. Because of the unu- sual geographic situation of the City of Stillwater sane intuitive judgment was used in determining the Western boarder of the trade area. Income and Population Based on the boundries set by the gravity model, with modifi- cations, a qualitative description of the trade area can be made. 17 Map 1 S TIL.LWA 1 EFL C END. SPHERE OFINFLUENCE Del lwood 96 Mohtomedi Birchwood Wlllerni■ �JCII T0 ml New Richmond Hudson Hudson M SPHERE OF INFLUENCE 18 Table 1 City of Stillwater Sphere of Influence Population and Income Total 19841 1984 AGI2 Influence Municipality Population Per Capita Area Inane Wisconsin V. Sanerset 885 $10,010 $ 8,858,850 T. Sanerset 1,997 8,239 16,453,283 T. St. Josephs 2,457 8,692 21,356,244 Minnesota Stillwater 12,770 $14,569 $186,046,038 Marine on St. Croix 550 20,061 11,033,327 Bayport 2,870 12,448 35,840,031 Oak Park Heights 3,190 3,538 11,286,151 T. May (1/2) 1,095 6,692 7,327,608 T. Stillwater 1,700 6,471 11,001,099 T. Baytown (1/2) 415 5,189 2,153,453 Total 27,929 $11,148 $311,356,084 Source: 1. Population Data fran Wisconsin Department of Administration Estimates. Population Data fran Minnesota State Demographer, 1984 Estimates. 2. 1984 Adjusted Gross Income Per Capita, Wisconsin Department of Revenue. 1984, Minnesota Department of Revenue. 19 As shown in Table 1, Stillwater's sphere of influence had an estimated population of 27,929 and a total adjusted gross income of approximately $311 million in 1984. Washington County retail sales overall in 1984 were estimated at about $513 million. Washington County residents spent about 39 percent of their income on retail sales in 1984. If we assume that Stillwater trade area residents also spend about 39 percent of their income on retail goods, about $121 million was spent by trade area residents in 1984. On the other hand, retail sales data for 1984 for the Cities of Oak Park Heights, Marine on St. Croix, and Stillwater suggest that over $160 million were spent in the trade area on retail sales. This suggests that the Stillwater trade area is capturing retail sales dollars from outside of the defined trade area. However, because of the strong market draw of the Twin Cities and suburban malls, Stillwater's CBD also experiences a good deal of leakage. The adjusted gross income per capita of the trade area is $11,148. As shown in Table 2, Stillwater's trade area adjusted gross income per capita is higher than the per capita adjusted gross incomes of either Washington County or the State of Minnesota. Table 2 Per Capita Adjusted Gross Income Comparison, 1984 Stillwater Trade Area $11,148 Washington County $10,587 State of Minnesota $ 8,985 Source: Minnesota Department of Revenue, 1984. RE This analysis of per capita income supports the more upscale, high quality development opportunities being suggested in the recommendations section of this report. Distribution of Trade Area Precise age cohort data was not readily available for the entire trade area. The City of Stillwater makes up about half of the trade area. The age distribution of City resi- dents was therefore compared to the age distribution of the Minneapolis/St. Paul SMSA and to the State of Minnesota. (See Figure 1) 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0A4 z 0 0.13 3 0.12 a 0.11 O a 0.1 0 0.09 Z 0.08 U 0.07 a 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 Figure 1 Age Distribution - 1980 <5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ AQE COHORTS ® STILLWATER SMSA ® MINNESOTA Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1980. 91 As shown in Figure 1, the City of Stillwater has consistantly higher percentages of childred aged 14 and under than either the SMSA or the State of Minnesota. The City of Stillwater. and the SMSA also have a higher percentage of their popula- tion in the 25 through 44 age category. Schooling in the Trade Area The percentage of persons in the City of Stillwater with 1-3 years of college is 20 percent while another 22 percent completed at least 4 years of college. In the SMSA, 19 per- cent of those over age 25 campleted 1-3 years of college while 22 percent of those over 25 completed 4 or more years of college. As shown in Table 3, only 17 percent of those over 25 in the State of Minnesota canpleted 1-3 years or 4 or more years of college. Table 3 Percent of Residents Over Age 25 who Canpleted College City of Minneapolis/ State of Stillwater St. Paul SMSA Minnesota 1-3 years of college 20% 19% 17% 4 + years of college 22% 22% 17% Source: Census of Population and Housing, 1980. 22 Summary In conclusion, the local Stillwater trade area had a popu- . laiton of almost 28,000 in 1984. The total adjusted gross income in the area was about $311 million in 1984. The Stillwater trade area has a significantly higher adjusted gross income per capita than the State of Minnesota overall. The City of Stillwater has slightly more children under age 14 than the State of Minnesota or the SMSA. The City also has more persons aged 25 through 44 than the State overall. In terms of education, Stillwater residents have a higher propensity toward a college education than the State of Minnesota overall. This income and demographic analysis suggests that more upscale, high quality development can be supported by trade area residents. 23 REVIEW OF PAST TRENDS AND CURRENT C:C NDITICNS A growing market is necessary for both a downtown area and for surrounding shopping malls to prosper in the long term. However, a growing market does not assure Stillwater that it will be able to capture its potential market. Studies have shown that smaller communities appear to be losing retail customers to their larger urban neighbors. Stillwater's proximity to the Twin Cities, and numerous competitive shopping areas makes predicting a higher trade capture rate less likely. According to the analysis of the Economic Impact of the Woodland Lakes shopping mall, there were 94 retailers in downtown in 1985, up from 77 such establishments in 1980 and 59 in 1975. In a 1987 walking survey of the CBD 110 retail establishments were identified. Description of Downtown The downtown includes all or parts of nineteen city blocks and a total land area of roughly sixty acres. There is a wide variety of economic activities occurring in Stillwater's downtown. A survey conducted in the summer of 1987, iden- tified 185 businesses employing approximately 2,338 persons in downtown Stillwater. About one fifth of all jobs in Stillwater are located in the downtown area. 24 Commerical Mix One of downtown Stillwater's strengths is its mix of econanic activities. Many of the business types present in downtown are canplementary. The proximity of numerous types of acti- vity enables a person to accanplish several objectives in one trip. Thus, downtown's "drawing power" is enhanced and is stronger than if it was only a retail center. The can- bination of activities in downtown Stillwater, particularly Retail Trade, Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (Fire), and Service activities, are rarely, if ever, available in one shopping center or mall. The ability to do comparison shopping is also an important strength of a downtown or modern shopping center. This strength exists in downtown Stillwater, but not to the degree that is typical of a planned shopping center. For example, within the Apparel and Accessory Stores category of retail trade there were twelve establishments in downtown Stillwater. This enables comparison shopping, especially among the several stores in downtown Stillwater. The lack of canparison shopping potential within certain other categories in the CBD (shoe store for example) tends to detract fran the downtown's drawing power. There are also certain types of retail trade activity which would typically be in a planned shopping center which do not exist or which are underrepresented in downtown Stillwater. Most notably, there is not a department store in downtown Stillwater. Few shopping centers are developed without one or more department stores as anchors because of their ability to attract shoppers. Downtown Stillwater's retail mix inclu- des a relatively small number of Apparel and Accessory stores. Apparel and Accessory stores are important attrac- tions in downtown Stillwater, but the "underrepresentation" within this category places downtown at a relative disadvan- tage in competing with planned shopping centers. 25 The mix of economic activities in downtown Stillwater also causes some problems. For example, manufacturing and whole- sale trade activities are not always compatible with Retail - Trade, FIRE, and Service uses in the downtown area. Resulting land use conflicts (e.g., increased truck traffic, outdoor storage, noise, etc.) may detract from the drawing power of the downtown. Again, to compare the downtown area to a modern shopping center, such centers are generally develped as a "planned unit" and uses which are incompatible with retailing are not permitted. At the same time, the mix- ture and number of activities in the downtown area means a larger daytime population in the Central Business District. Trend Analysis The purpose of the trend analysis is to determine what changes have taken place during the past 15-20 years in the community. In particular, the commercial mix in the downtown area is analyzed. Based on data which document past trends, as well as information and insights from merchant interviews, projections of future activity in the downtown can be made. Retail Trade Retail in Stillwater, as measured by volume of sales, has grown steadily during the past 20 years. According to the Census of Retail Trade, total retail sales in Stillwater in 1967 was approximately $21.2 million. In 1982, total retail sales volume had increased to $104.2 million. (See Table 4.) The Census data indicated that Stillwater's share of Washington County's total sales declined between 1967 and 1982. However, since there is a large amount of retail acti- vity in Oak Park Heights, Stillwater and Oak Park Heights should be considered one trade center. The Census doesn't provide retail trade figures for Oak Park Heights before 1982. The Minnesota Department of Revenue's retail trade figures for Stillwater include data for Oak Park Heights. Retail sales figures for Table 4 Total Retail Sales Comparison City of Stillwater and Washington County 1967-1982 Percent 1967 1972 1977 1982 Change City of Stillwater $21,204 $ 29,918 $ 53,174 $104,170 +391.3 Washington Co. 69,748 128,506 237,780 411,134 +489.5 Stillwater as a % of County 30.4 23.3 25.3 25.3 ---- Source: Census of Retail Trade, for years noted. Retail sales figures for Stillwater -Oak Park Heights for 1980-1986 are shown in Table 5. This data suggests that Stillwater -Oak Park Heights, as a trade center, has gained a larger share of Washington County's total retail trade, but appears to be leveling off at this time. 27 Table 5 Total Retail Sales Canparison Stillwater/Oak Park Heights and Washington County 1980-1986 Percent 1980 1982 1984 1986 Chan City of Sillwater & Oak Park Hts. $ 80,226 $128,450 $150,328 $166,450 +107.5 Washington County 271,408 377,692 436,319 500,758 + 84.5 Stillwater/OPH as % of County 29.6 34.0 34.5 33.2 ----- Source: Minnesota Department of Revenue, Years Noted. The performance of individual Major Retail Categories is presented in Table 6. As shown Miscellaneous Retail experienced the greatest gain in sales over the time period 1982-1986 with a 157 percent increase. This, of course, is largely reflective of the increase in non -local purchases noted earlier in this report. The second largest increase (+130 percent) was realized by Lumber, Hardware, etc. stores followed by furnature stores with an increase of 51 percent. Please note the can- paratively poor performance of Eating and Drinking Establishments over the same time period. 28 Table 6 Retail Sales Data For City of Stillwater and Oak Park Heights By Major Retail Category, 1982-1986 (000's) Retail Category 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Lumber, Hardware, etc. $ 7,200 $ 9,144 $ 12,147 $ 14,191 $ 16,526 General Merchandise 8,144 9,658 11,011 10,729 ---- Food Stores 50,874 52,513 53,550 58,794 59,871 Auto Dealers, Stations 27,459 28,081 35,387 32,611 32,590 Apparal Stores 3,722 4,923 4,783 4,524 4,339 Furniture Stores 1,495 1,785 2,270 2,419 3,056 Eating, Drinking Est. 16,709 17,984 15,382 17,053 17,103 Miscellaneous Retail 12,848 14,571 15,797 17,170 32,965 Total Retail Sales $128,450 $138,660 $150,328 $157,992 $166,450 Source: Minnesota Department of Revenue, Years Noted. Percent Change +130% + 2 +157 +108% 29 Neither the Census of Retail Trade nor the Minnesota Department of Revenue report retail statistics for separate shopping districts (e.g., downtown area) in small communities such as Stillwater. In fact, little in terms of hard data is available to analyze trends in downtown Stillwater. Sane estimates about the changes in economic mix were determined using City directories. This analysis identified an increase in retail establishments, including conversions of warehouse or residential uses to retail space. In summary, retailing in downtown Stillwater has undergone a major transformation since 1970. Information on the volume of retail sales downtown is not available, but the number and type of stores has changed significantly. The downtown has lost some of its larger stores, but the space they occupied has been filled in with smaller stores. The phenomenon is not unique to Stillwater. The conversion of large vacant retail space to "mini -malls" or specialty centers is occurring in many established shopping districts throughout the country. There has also been a conversion of a signifi- cant amount of non -retail space to retailing. Miscellaneous retail stores accounted for almost all of the net increase in retail establishments and experienced the largest increase in sales over the past five years. There was a significant growth in the number of eating and drinking places and apparel and accessory stores but a comparatively small increase in sales. The growth in these activities, combined with declines in most other activities has changed the face of downtown Stillwater. Downtown Stillwater is clearly serving two overlapping markets: a local market and a visitor or tourist market which is highly seasonal. This trend has coincided with a tranendous increase in retail activity along the Highway 36 corridor. 30 Downtown Stillwater is a diversified economic center, not just a retail trade district. There is a wide variety of non -retail establishments in the downtown covering a broad range of economic activities. The number of non -retail establishments increased between 1970 and 1985, but the increase was considerably smaller than that exhibited by retail establishments. The downtown area remains strong in activities which comple- ment retailing (e.g., services and finance, insurance and real estate). Trends in the number of non -retail establish- ments show a movement to a more "consumer -oriented" downtown (fewer wholesale, transportation/utility activities). This suggests an improved land use pattern downtown, as well. However, there has been an increase in the number of manufac- turing activities downtown. This helps to keep the down- town's daytime population up and aids retailers, but may also cause problems in terms of increased truck traffic, noise, and parking problems which may detract from the CBD's shopping atmosphere. 31 SURVEY SUMMARY In an attempt to gather primary information regarding attitu- des of residents, visitors, and workers concerning Stillwater's CBD, several surveys were floated. A summary of the results of these surveys will be presented here. Resident Survey Summary Methodology: The resident survey was an intercept survey carried out in the downtown during the Lumberjack Days festival. When people arrived at the entrance to the festival they were asked whether they were Stillwater residents or not. If they were a resident of Stillwater they were asked to complete the resident survey. Because of this arrangement for collecting the survey information, the survey instrument was made rela- tively short, only the front and back of one page. The response rate was according to the interviewers very good. However, no accurate count of the response rate was determined. A total of 169 resident surveys were completed. A quick analysis of the age distribution of Stillwater resi- dents and those responding to this survey suggested that the young were somewhat over represented. 32 Summary: Of the residents surveyed, over 50 percent lived in the City of Stillwater over 11 years. About 43 percent of the resi- dents surveyed were between the age of 16 and 35. The residents felt that Stillwater's most important downtown asset was its friendly people. The second most popular response selected as an important asset was the CBD's "natural environment". Only 22 percent of those surveyed said they felt Stillwater's shopping facilities were one of its strongest assets. Most of those surveyed (73 percent) suggested that they visit Stillwater for its restaurants and drinking establishments. To visit the library, churches, or schools was the second most popular reason for visiting Stillwater. Only 5 percent of those surveyed suggested they don't go downtown. Most residents (76.3 percent) surveyed used autcanobiles as transportation to the downtown. About two-thirds could park their automobile within one block of their destination. Monday through Friday during the hours of 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. was the most popular time for the residents surveyed to visit the CBD. Overwhelmingly, heavy traffic congestion and parking problems are seen as the two most critical issues facing Stillwater's CBD. Similarly, improvements that most Stillwater residents feel are needed are also related to traffic and parking. The issues that residents felt were extremely important to the CBD's future were to preserve Stillwater's historic buildings and parking improvements. The least important issue to the CBD's future of those listed was the expansion of the Stillwater Yacht Club. 33 An analysis of age and time and day of visit suggested that younger residents visit Stillwater weekdays and weekends during the evening while middle-aged residents tend to visit during the morning on weekdays. Younger residents of Stillwater tended to consider recreational assets of the CBD important while those aged 36 through 45 saw Stillwaters shopping facilities as assets. Older Stillwater residents suggested that good city services were an important asset. Visitor Surve SummaJaE Methodology: The visitor survey was first administered at Stillwater's Lumberjack Days event. The response at this event included 49 surveys. However, these results were considered to be too biased as most of the young visitors were more interested in a party atmosphere than seriously identifying their percep- tions of Stillwater's downtown. Therefore, these survey results was not used in this analysis. A different visitor survey strategy was therefore, developed. A visitor sidewalk intercept survey replaced the visitor sur- vey that had been started at Lumberjack Days. Visitors were surveyed between the hours of 10 a.m, and 3 p.m. on two week days and one Saturday during the same hours. This sidewalk intercept survey was administered at the South end of Stillwater's CBD because it was believed that any shopper visiting Stillwater would pass through the South end. The response rate according to the interviewers was very good with close to a 100 percent response rate of those asked to answer the questions. Overall 202 visitors surveys were completed. 34 Summary: The main characteristics of shoppers visiting Stillwater will now be summarized. Most of those visiting Stillwater are repeat visitors. They visit primarily for shopping, recreation and dining. Recreation includes sightseeing which was the most often mentioned form of recreation sited by visitors. Very few visitors to Stillwater were there for business. Most of those visiting Stillwater came by car and only about 12 percent intended on staying overnight. The number staying overnight could possibly be increased by providing more accommodations. The three bed & breakfast establishments in Stillwater provide only 15 roams which are consistently filled on the weekends. About 30 percent of those surveyed plan to spend between $10.00 and $24.00 on this trip. The most important characteristic of the City to Stillwater visitors are the historic atmosphere, availability of restaurants, and the presence of the St. Croix River. Of little importance to the Stillwater visitors surveyed was drinking, dancing, or special events. The majority (68 percent) of these visiting Stillwater are coming from the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Stillwater is most likely not drawing as many visitors as it could frcm the adjacent western Wisconsin market. The visitors to Stillwater surveyed were typically young, female, with annual incanes of between $20 - 34,000. These visitors suggested there would visit Stillwater more often if parking was more convenient and cheaper, and if more special events and waterfront activities were held. 35 The two activities most often done in canbination by visitors to Stillwater were to shop and visit restaurants. Lack of overnight accaYmodations was seen as a detriment toward staying overnight in Stillwater by those surveyed who were there primarily for shopping and recreation. Those spending the most dollars in Stillwater were there principally for shopping. Also, those staying overnight were the majority of those spending over $100.00 on their trip to Stillwater. The presence of the St. Croix River was most important to those who planned on staying overnight in Stillwater. Important to most visitors of Stillwater, regardless of ori- gin, was the restaurants, the historic atmosphere of the downtown, the St. Croix River, and shopping for gifts and crafts etc. Also, regardless of origin, the visitors came primarily for shopping and recreation. When analyzed by gender, the females came primarily for shopping while the males came primarily for recreation. Downtown Worker Survey Summary Methodology: The downtown worker survey was distributed to about 150 per- sons who were Employed in Stillwater's CBD. The businesses to be surveyed were selected by the Stillwater Planning Department. An attempt was make by the staff to select a cross-section of the businesses in the CBD. For example, retail, service, and manufacturing businesses were all repre- sented. The response rate was about 64 percent. Of the 150 surveys distributed, 96 were returned canpleted. 36 Summary: Stillwater downtown workers primarily drive their own autano- biles to work and parking those vehicles is perceived as a problem by downtown workers. About one half of those sur- veyed have an employer provided parking space. The others either use metered lot or street parking or park on unmetered residential streets or in unmetered lots primarily near the river. Downtown workers rate the attractiveness of the downtown and the quality of the CBD's restaurants as excellent. Seventy- six percent of those surveyed rated the traffic flow in the CBD as poor. Traffic flow was the only characteristic for which no respondents rated the characteristic excellent. Downtown workers identified a definite need for a shoe store, a childrens clothing store, and a men's clothing store in the CBD. Numerous others were identified as a possible need. Downtown workers (75.8 percent) suggest that the City of Stillwater definitely does not need another antique store. About 22 percent of the downtown workers surveyed suggested that they visit the CBD once per week that is not work related. Workers seldan shop or frequent restaurants during their breaks but about 34 percent of those surveyed do shop and visit restaurants during their lunch break one day per week. Almost one half of those surveyed never window shop/browse and another 34 percent never eat lunch at a restaurant. About 68 percent of those employed in the CBD are female and those married versus single account for about 60 percent of those surveyed. Those respondents aged 35 through 49 made up the largest age cohort of CBD employees and accounted for about 40 percent of those responding to the survey. 37 About one half of those employed in the CBD also reside in the City of Stillwater while another 25.3 percent live elsewhere in Washington County. About 90 percent of these . responding to this survey are in Stillwater primarily Monday through Friday. About 27 percent of those surveyed held professional/technical positions while another 19 percent held secretarial jobs. About one half of these surveyed reported their income to be between $20,000 and $50,000. 38 SUMMARY OF OTHER PRIMARY RESEARCH Focus Groups In order to gain in-depth information on downtown develop- ment, focus groups were used in this study. A focus group is a marketing research tool which brings together a small group of people who share some type of commonalty for the purpose of obtaining their opinions on such topics as new products, advertising, or in this case, downtown development. A moderator leads the group discussion by asking predetermined questions of the group members. Each individual is asked to respond to the question with his/her own opinion. Discussion is videotaped and/or audiotaped to allow the researchers the opportunity to analyze the material at a later date. To further identify and explore development opportunities for downtown Stillwater, three separate focus groups were formed of individuals knowledgeable of and active in the downtown area. For the sake of convenience, the three focus were called the Retailers, the Property Owners, and the Decision Makers. The composition was as follows: Retailers - 10 members Property Owners - 8 members Decision Makers - 9 members Each of the three groups met once for approximately one and one half hours. Questions asked of the group related to three key issues: A discussion of the current situation, roadblocks hindering the attraction of people/businesses to the downtown, and future opportunities for downtown Stillwater. 39 Perceptions of Downtown Stillwater: All three focus groups felt that downtown Stillwater is uni- que. It is a "real" town, a town where people work and shop and not a "museum place" like RiverPlace or Bandana Square. Because it is a "real town" it has its problems notably the lack of adequate parking, the problems associated with traf- fic congestion caused by the bridge, the lack of consistent retail business hours and the problems related to garbage. But as one retailer put it, downtown Stillwater is a 117" on the way to a "9". As the birthplace of the State of Minnesota, it is a historic community that has old fashioned charm. This charm is reflected in the downtown's architecture and its lift bridge. Although historic preservation of the buildings in downtown Stillwater is often viewed by downtown business people as "a dirty word" and an infringement on their rights to run their business as they see fit, the pre- servation of Downtown buildings and the bridge is viewed by many focus group members as an important part of downtown Stillwater's marketing mix. As brought up by the Decision Maker group, the historic aspect of Stillwater gives the area a theme; it provides a competitive advantage for the down- town. But downtown Stillwater is changing. According to focus group members, the downtown is changing from a place where residents went to buy their day-to-day goods and services to a location that pulls from the 2.3 million people within the ten -county area that surrounds Stillwater. This change has resulted in sane confusion for Stillwater residents and busi- ness people. 40 Stillwater residents, according to the focus groups, often feel like their town has been taken over by tourists, regional shoppers, and other non -locals. Downtown business, owners wonder how they can meet the needs of their local and non -local target markets. They realize that in order for their businesses to be successful, they need to cater to both groups. Downtown Stillwater businesses need the patronage of the locals, especially in the fall and winter when "tourism" has dropped off. "Tourists" and non -locals provide a large source of revenue for Stillwater businesses in the summer months. The traffic congestion generated by the tourist group tends to discourage locals fran frequenting the downtown and many have developed the habit of going sanewhere other than the downtown to shop. This trend to shop in areas other than downtown has been encouraged by sane Stillwater business that are located above as well as below the hill. For this reason, many Stillwater residents no longer have a need to cane in to the downtown. The Retailer and Decision Maker focus groups, however, feel that given the choice, many local residents would like to shop in the downtown area if they could do so conveniently. Who Shops in Downtown Stillwater?: The Retailers were asked to indicate where their custaners were from. There was a wide variation of response which could be related to variety of retail businesses represented at the group meeting. For example, one Retailer said her market is 99 percent local, while another said hers is 90 percent tourist. Most of their markets are sanewhere in bet- ween these two extremes, but many indicated that large por- tions of their markets are outside of the immediate Stillwater area. 41 There is apparently considerable seasonal variation in the composition of markets. Several Retailers indicated that the volume of business in downtown drops during the winter (off-season) months and the percentage of business from strictly local areas increases significantly. These Retailers suggested that there are quite a few businesses that "can't make it through the winter without local custaners." There is also apparently some variation in markets by a key demographic characteristic: age. Some of the Retailers said that the older market was more loyal, while the younger market tends to do more camparison shopping. However, based on the composition of the Retailer group, it is impossible to draw any statistically reliable conclusion form the comments about custaners and market canposition. There was a general concern among the Decision Makers regarding downtown Stillwater's trend toward becaning a tourist attraction. There were concerns expressed about keeping it "a real town" among members of this group. Property Owners, on the other hand, seemed to have a consen- sus that there should be more effort to "capitalize on regional shoppers" and that downtown is a "regional shopping area." However, Property Owners apparently feel a need to limit these efforts: one member of this group "would hate to see it become a tourist town." Another said that downtown Stillwater should not become a museum place like RiverPlace or Bandana Square" because "people go there once, its very lovely, but don't go there to shop again and again." There was consensus among all three groups regarding what attracts people to downtown Stillwater. It's because of "the river," the "historic" and "quaint atmosphere," the "unique flavor," and because its a "real town." 42 Physical Condition: Retailers were the most vocal regarding the need to "clean up" the downtown area. It could be "cleaner," it could use score improvements in terms of the "Shrubs, flowers, and trash cans." A similar comment was that the "cleaning needs to be more intense". Retailers generally agreed that the downtown could look a lot better with relatively minimal effort and expense. Garbage-managment was raised as an issue. Specifically, suggestions regarding the shielding of garbage cans, espe- cially around restaurants, were expressed. Problems with insects and rodents, with things dropping out of garbage cans, especially around restaurants, were expressed. The fact that shoppers have to "walk among the cans" was noted. The railroad track area was said to be a "mess," and a "real no-man's land" in terms of debris and the need for cleaning. The other two groups did not raise this issue. Development Opportunities: As mentioned previously, all three focus groups feel Stillwater is in a transition. The question facing downtown Stillwater is what is the proper type of business and acti- vity that Stillwater can support. Retailers and Decision Makers agree that the downtown needs a diverse base of retail, light industry, office space, and housing in order to thrive. The Decision Maker group suggested that the downtown be "zoned" as follows: 43 Retail space - limited to Main Street office space - limited to Second Street and second floor space above existing retailers on Main Street Parking - situated to the north, south and west ends of the downtown Housing - situated to the north of the downtown The group gave no indication as to where light industry should be specifically situated. Retail, light industry, office space, and housing development opportunities will be discussed in further detail. Downtown Retail opportunity: No agreement between the groups could be reached as to what specific types of retail businesses should be sought for the downtown area. The groups did agree, however, that these new stores should be "year around" stores that sell basic items that would appeal to local residents instead of "trinket" stores that appeal mainly to non -local shoppers. Store types mentioned in group discussions were as follows: 1) Dime store (variety store) like a Ben Franklin 2) Shoe store (all kinds) 3 ) Non-gifty store 4) Destination stores like Estelle's (this is a wanan's clothing store that draws out-of-town shop- pers into the Stillwater area) 5) Clothing stores like The Outfitter. In general, focus group members would like to have greater store selection in the downtown. They also feel that any new businesses should canpliment existing retail businesses. All three groups feel that downtown Stillwater had an adequate assortment of restaurants so expansion in this area is not considered necessary. 44 In addition to the type of retail businesses desired in the downtown, Decision Makers were concerned that the right type of retail business person be sought to run new downtown busi- nesses. They outlined a number of characteristics they felt they would like to see in a new downtown retailer in order to ensure the success of a new business in the downtown. These characteristics are as follows: 1) The retailer should be aggressive and able to adapt to the market he/she is in. 2) He/she should be aggressive in his/her approach by finding his/her clientele. 3) He/she should be able to financially weather the start-up and opening months of operation. (The group feels that sane movie businesses may not have the financial resources necessary to enable then to stay in business during its inital start-up) 4) He/she should have a proven track record in regard to running that particular type of business. Retailers and Decision Makers have mentioned a number of problems downtown Stillwater faces in attracting new busi- nesses into the area. These problems are as follows: 1) Rents for downtown businesses are high. A business 20' by 40' may pay as much as $1500 per month in rent. 2) A lack of convenient parking. 3) Traffic congestion due to the draw bridge discoura- ges downtown shoppers. 4) Existing buildings are too small to give chain stores the square footage they desire. 5) Poor basement storage facilities where spaces are small and wet. 45 Light Industry: Although many downtown business owners originally seemed to question the wisdom of allowing a light manufacturing firm into the downtown, they now seem convinced of the necessity to develop this type of venture in the area. Decision Makers and Retailers felt such businesses are important for sup- porting downtown retail trade. They felt once these types of businesses were established in the area, it would be easier to recruit new retailers to the downtown. According to Decision Makers, the ideal type of light industry for down- town Stillwater would be one that is clean (no pollution), does not have a lot of daily customers (would not add to parking problem), and does not require many trucking services (would not add to traffic congestion). To attract these types of industries, the focus groups felt that reasonably priced space should be made available. The decision maker group thinks that downtown Stillwater could make this low cost space available by encouraging the development of a starter or business incubator building. This building would be divided into many smaller bays and it would allow small businesses to share same operating expenses. Office Buildings: According to the Decision Makers focus group, many downtown businesses have moved out of the downtown due to lack of ade- quate office space. To support this fact, focus group mem- bers listed the names of several insurance agencies, doctors and law firms that have recently moved out of the downtown. The Decision Maker group felt that these business people would have preferred to stay downtown if there was adequate space and parking. The group felt that efforts should be made to encourage these business people to stay downtown as 46 the business generated by than and their customers helps sup- port downtown retail trade. To meet the needs of these busi- ness people, reasonably priced office space should be developed in the area. The group felt that new or renovated buildings in the area should be designed as multi tenant buildings to accommodate several different businesses. These buildings should be designed in such a way to allow for future expansion needs. Housing: All groups agreed on the importance of developing housing in the downtown area. The most feasible site for the develop- ment of housing was the old prison site. The groups felt that rental units as well as condominiums would work well in downtown Stillwater if adequate parking was available. Transportation Issues: Three issues that were discussed extensively in all three groups were traffic congestion, the bridge, and parking. * Parking Most members in all three groups felt that parking is a serious problem in downtown Stillwater. However, a local minority expressed feelings that parking is not as big of a problem as most people make it out to be. This group feels that parking is more of a perceived problem than a .real problem. In fact, one member of the pro- perty owners group felt that the parking situation in downtown was actually an "asset" because "people want to be where other people are", that a sense of attraction results from the short supply of parking spaces. 47 While there was general agreement that parking is a problem, there was not a daninant solution put forth to solve the problem. The need for a ramp(s) was mentioned in each group, but the best location for the ramp(s) could not be pinpointed. The two principal con- centrations of activity, at the north and south ends of downtown generate the most traffic and therefore, need increased parking support the most. As part of the discussion regarding the north end, it was apparent that the parking situation there can be dealt with more effectively and at lower cost than for the the other end of downtown. This is because the north end is just emerging, actually going through rede- velopment, and the land required for parking will be easier to acquire. However, concerns were expressed that actions must be taken soon on the north end to make sure that adequate parking is integrated with other land uses as the area develops. The Property Owners empha- sized the importance of having the private sector and the City work together to address the parking issue. Specifically, parking could and should be integrated with all major new developments. The Decision Makers suggested the parking of cars on the first levels of buildings. They also expressed concern about the expected high cost of building ramps in Downtown due to soils and water table characteristics. The developer should put the package together and negotiate with the City for support of the project, which may include financial support for parking. 48 * Bridge The need for a new bridge across the St. Croix River was generally acknowledged in all three groups. However, a couple of participants felt that a new bridge would not be needed if the number of trucks passing through the City could be reduced. They felt that many trucks were using the Stillwater crossing to avoid the weigh station on the interstate highway. There was general consensus in all three groups that a south corridor for a new bridge is the most desirable alternative. Ewen among the Retailers, a group that would lose visibility and perhaps accessibility if the new bridge corridor is taken out of the downtown, there was consensus that a new bridge is needed and that the south corridor would be best for downtown Stillwater. As pointed out in the Decision Makers group, this may be because the most successful businesses in downtown are generally destinations. People are willing to make the effort to reach then. However, the Retailers exhibited the greatest support for keeping the existing bridge in place. This would provide for local access to the down- town from Wisconsin (a major portion of many retailers' markets). Perhaps more importantly, it would help to preserve the City's historic image. The existing bridge is a well-known symbol which is used extensively on logos and in promotional efforts. The major questions regarding keeping the existing bridge relate to ownership and liability. The Retailers Feel that the State and Federal governments should assume/retain ownership and operation, while the Decision Makers and Property Owners suggested that the existing bridge be "privatized" and operated as a toll bridge. It was 49 pointed out in the Decision Makers group that in similar situations, where a new bridge has been constructed, the existing bridge has been offered to the City, but the local governments have not been able to afford the upkeep. It was suggested by the Decision Makers that the bridge issue should be approached as a historic pre- servation issue. North End: The north end is "a mess right now", according to one member of the Decision Makers group. However, all three groups agreed that the north end offers significant potential for redevelopment opportunities. It's almost a blank slate in terms of a wide variety of uses", according to another member of the Decision Makers. While important things are happening on the north end (e.g., the Minnesota Zephyr and antique shop development), a member of the Decision Makers group described the north end as "kind of a bland." The Property Owners viewed the situation a little differently and described this area by saying that "the downtown peters out in the middle". This implies that the focus of planning should be on the area between the north and south ends as much or more as on the north end itself. The general flow of the discussion in the Property Owners group is that things will continue to happen on the north end. Attention must be given to "coordinating" development in the north end, but attention must also be given to "connecting" and integrating the already successful develop- ment on the south end and the emerging development on the north end. 50 There were numerous types of development opportunities iden- tified in all three groups. Parking to serve the north end itself, as well as other parts of the downtown was suggested in all three groups. However, each of the groups also suggested lodging (especially an "upscale" and "quality" hotel/motel), housing, retail, and office development for the north end specifically, housing near the old prison site was suggested in the Decision Makers groups. The Mapel Island Dairy, a major property in the north end, was also the subject of discussion in each of the groups. There were mixed emotions about the presence of the dairy in downtown Stillwater. Each of the groups expressed support for the dairy as an important employer in the community. There was same minor disagreement among members of the Retailer group regarding the economic impact of the dairy on the downtown itself. While one member felt that the dairy doesn't help downtown businesses, another felt that the people who work there "make businesses work in the winter time". The dairy itself was represented in the Property Owners group and it was the subject of extensive discussion during that session in particular. The discussion in that group started out with an admission that the dairy doesn't "really belong" in downtown Stillwater anymore. The downtown and its func- tions have changed. But even more significantly it was pointed out that the Maple Island Dairy, as a business, has changed, too. In essence, the dairy is not happy with the Minnesota and the local business climate. The firm is not tied to local milk supplies as it once was, it is concerned about the cost of doing business locally (high labor costs, sewer costs, pour logistics) and its opportunities for pro- duct expansion are limited due to smell, pollution, etc. 51 It was very openly announced in the Property Owners group that the dairy will be willing to sell its north end proper- ties "for the right price," probably in "about 2 years". However, it was emphatically stated that the dairy property and the prison site owned by the dairy are "a package deal." City Involvement: The issue of city involvement in north end development, in general, and in dealing with the Maple Island Dairy, was brought up in all of the groups. The Decision Makers felt that the City should make in effort to keep the dairy in the community. The Property Owners, heavily influenced by the dairy representative, seemed to feel it would be useless for the City to even try to keep the dairy in town. The Retailers, again heavily influenced by the thinking of one individual, felt that the "government shouldn't help the pri- vate sector," that "the taxpayers are getting tired of this," and generally speaking, the "less involvement the better". However, the Retailers did feel that "the City could facili- tate change, make things consistent", not only regarding the dairy, but downtown development in general. An opportunity that must be given serious consideration is to try to keep the administrative facilities in Stillwater and let the pro- duction facilities move elsewhere. All three groups agreed that the City should be more actively involved in downtown development, including marketing the City. There was also general agreement that the City is not and has not been doing what it should be doing regarding planning in the downtown area. Terms like "reactionary plan- ning" and "City takes an after the fact role in planning", "things are now pretty much hit or miss", were used to described the City downtown planning activities. However, the Property Owners and the Decision Makers feel that the City is improving its attitude toward downtown and according to the Property Owners the City Council is becoming more aggressive as it initiated the downtown plan. 52 Conclusion: In conclusion those involved in the focus group session suggested that Stillwater's problems stem from the fact that the City is a "real town". These community members have seen the CBD change from a local orientation to a regional orien- tation. Considerable seasonal variation in the composition of indivi- dual business markets was suggested by focus group par- ticipants. Sane participants expressed concern over the City becoming too tourist oriented while others felt the tran- sition was inevitable and expressed interest in capitalizing on the regional market. This dicotomy has been prevalent throughout the entire planning process. Focus group members suggested that more selection in the types of stores found in the downtown is needed. The traffic problems in the CBD identified and discussed by the participants of the focus groups included parking traffic congestion, and the bridge. Ways to solve the traffic problems were not agreed upon. However, the participants suggested the urgency of incorporating parking and traffic control into any significant development on the north end. Suggestions by focus group participants as to possible deve- lopment opportunities on the north end included a quality hotel, retail, office, and housing. 53 Office_Space Demand Introduction: To ascertain if additional office space is in fact needed downtown, interviews with realtors, owner/managers of office space, and businesses occupying space in Stillwater's central Business District were conducted during September and October, 1987. These interviews were meant to supplement the information gathered through the focus group sessions regarding the need for office space in the CBD. Survey Results: Presently, office space downtown is scarce. Most of the seemingly prime office space has been preempted by retail use. That is, first floor, street level, space downtown has been converted to retail with offices and apartments on upper levels. Indeed, the number of retail establishments down- town, has increased 43 percent over the past seven years from a total of 77 in 1980 to 110 currently. Realty World, a local real estate firm, is presently in the process of moving fran their downtown location to new offices located near State Highway 36. Their move will free -up approximately 4,500 sq. ft. of additional office space down- town. Approximately 1,500 sq. ft. of the building is at street level and could be used for retail or office purposes; the remaining 3,000 sq. ft. is on the second floor and is presently occupied by the real estate firm. There has, however, been little interest in this space to date, according to Realty World representatives. 54 There is vacant office space available downtown if the Connelly and Stapples Mill buildings are included. However, neither of those buildings has been used as retail or office space in the past and thus would require major renovation for any other use than light manufacturing and/or warehouse/storage space. The Grand Garage currently has a 4,000 sq. ft. of space available for office use. There is considerable competition for office tenants with several new office buildings either built or under construc- tion in the Stillwater area. The new buildings range in size fram 3,000 to 12,000 sq. ft. and are located outside of the Central Business district, either near the St. Croix shopping mall or in the City industrial office park. Developers of these properties have experienced little dif- ficulty in finding tenants. None of those interviewed see a need for additional office space downtown now, or in the foreseeable future. While parking and traffic congestion are often cited as factors limiting the potential of downtown for office development, elimination of these problems is not likely to increase demand that significantly. Same local decision makers suggested that a latent demand exists for high quality office space at*a reasonable price. office development is recamlen- ded as a development opportunity downtown only if parking, quality, and price constraints are overcame. Housing_Denand Introduction: Based on interviews with apartment complex managers in the City of Stillwater, a moderate to strong demand for housing exists in the area. Market rate apartment complexes (Rivertown Apartments for example) do not formally compile a waiting list, but suggest they never have trouble filling vacancies. This particular complex has 21 units in two buildings with rents at about $450 per month. 55 There also appears to be a strong demand for elderly housing in the City of Stillwater. A demand exists especially for low to moderately priced units. According to a manager at the Rivertown Cannons (a subsidized senior citizen housing facility) they have a total of 95 housing units, all of which are full. Also they have a waiting list of 37 persons for 1-bedroan units, 5 persons waiting for 2-bedroam units, and 1 person waiting for a handicapped accessible unit. She suggested that same new senior housing such as "The Cottages", while filling a particular need, was often too expensive a housing alternative for many of Stillwater's elderly resi- dents. Stillwater's population has increased fran 12,290 in 1980 to 13,116 in 1986 or an increase of 6.7 percent. Along with this population increase, the household size in Stillwater has decreased fran 2.95 persons per household in 1980 to 2.83 persons per household in 1986 or a decline of 4 percent. The forces of these two factors and the projected future growth of the area all combine to create a significant demand for housing geared toward all inane levels that are found in the community. In 1980, Stillwater had a total of 4,065 house- holds and they are projected to have 4,800 households (+18 percent) by the year 2000. Certainly, the CBD would be an ideal location for senior citizen or other types of housing. Residential units would be enhanced by the natural amenities of the area and because of the availability of groceries at Hooley's store along with access to of a wide variety of other necessities and services (i.e. pharmacy, meat market, bakery, senior drop in center, restaurants, etc). The location of a senior housing complex or other housing in the CBD would provide an influx of shop- pers to increase the sales of local merchants while also helping increase the activity level in the CBD on a regular basis. 56 The CBD could also support sane higher quality housing units, perhaps condominiums. Other communities along the St. Croix River have allowed for the development of condominiums along the river. And while we would not promote intense develop- ment along the entire length of the river, certainly scat- tered development interspersed with more passive uses is desirable. Survey of Similar Communities Introduction: JMA/Applied Research Group conducted an exploratory survey of communities similar to Stillwater during July and August 1987. The purpose of the windshield survey was to note uni- que and innovative developments and activities in the similar communities that maybe well -suited for a downtown Stillwater location. Developments and activities that would compliment existing business in Stillwater and not detract from the CBD's image. Comparison Communities: Camaunities located in the states of Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin were chosen to be surveyed based on the following factors: 1) A population size roughly equivalent to Stillwater; 2) A determined and ambitions effort to improve their Central Business Districts; 3) A location on or near a body of water; 4) A location relatively close to a large urban center much the same as Stillwater is situated with respect to Minneapolis/St. Paul, and; 5) The presence of a rather sizable tourist industry. 57 The carmunities selected for this survey exhibit most, if not all of the above characteristics. Table 7 presents the list of 11 carmunities. Table 7 Carmunities Selected for Exploratory Survey 1985 1984 General Carmunity Population AGIPC Characteristics Algona, WI 3,691 $ 7,552 Lake Michigan, Tourism Cedarburg, WI 5,216 $13,800 Revitalized CBD Tourism Galena, IL 3,930 $ 9,428 Rivertown, Historic CBD Hartford, WI 3,221 $ 9,866 Revitalized CBD Hastings, MN 13,430 $11,470 Rivertown, Revitalized CBD Hudson, WI 5,576 $14,153 Rivertown, Tourism, Revitalized CBD Kewaunee, WI 2,869 $ 8,321 Lake Michigan, Tourism Port Washington, WI 8,836 $10,499 Lake Michigan, Tourism Red Wing, MN 14,198 $ 8,920 Rivertown, Tourism Sturgeon Bay, WI 9,118 $ 8,822 Revitalized CBD West Bend, WI 21,993 $10,696 Rivertown, Revitalized CBD Mean Value 8,371 $10,321 Maximum Value 21,993 $14,153 Minimum Value 2,869 $ 7,552 Stillwater, MN 12,970 $14,340 Rivertown, Tourism As shown in Table 7, populations for the selected communities range fran 2,869 (Kewaunee, WI) to 21,99(West Bend, WI). Adjusted Gross Inane Per Capita (AGIPC) ranges fran a w of $7,552 (Kewaunee, WI) to a high of $14,153 (Hudson, WI). 58 While Stillwater's population is about 3,500 above the com- munity mean value, the City's AGIPC is higher than any of the communities surveyed. The higher income, however, should not diminish the value of studying the other caanunities for develop- ment opportunities. Rather, it only suggests more dollars are available locally to help finance and support new development, particularly business that is oriented to the local market. In addition to the communities presented in Table 7, an exploratory survey of several small communities in northern Door County, Wisconsin, was conducted. Communities such as Ephraim, Sister Bay, Fish Creek and Egg Harbor, although much smaller in size, share many of the same characteristics as Stillwater. Namely, a heavy reliance on tourism, a waterfront location ( Lake Michigan) and a strong scandanavian ethnic influence. The results of this survey of communities has contributed greatly to the identification of new oppor- tunities for Stillwater's downtown. Summary: The unique character of each individual community we surveyed will not be discussed in detail in this report. However, the general conclusions or lessons we learned through the agglo- meration of the developments noted in the communities will be discussed. One recurring theme that was noted was the emphasis many tourist communities placed on their unique ethnicity. This ethnic identification was clearly lacking in the Stillwater CBD. Another general theme was the reliance of tourist related downtowns on specialty retail trade shops. Those develop- ments that were particularly unique and also lacking from the Stillwater economy were identified and explored further. We believe that the unique retail activities discovered in the windshield survey of similar can -immunities provided a good base of possible retail and associated activities that may contribute to the Stillwater economy. 59 In conclusion, all of this information was brought to bear on the list of potential development opportunities. The list was then reduced to include only those opportunities that met the minimum requirements we identified. These requirements being: * A similar successful development occurred in another community. * The industry showed growth potential, nationally as well as regionally. * The activity was canpatible and camplimentary of other economic activity in the CBD. * The activity would not threaten an existing retailer in the CBD. * The activity could be tied to both local and non -local markets. * The Stillwater economic development strategy did not suggest the activity was at or near market saturation. The following then are a list of the opportunities that meet these requirements. The approximate amount of square footage theses types of developments typically require are included in parentheses next to the name of the identified opportunity. M IN) DiN Di •• Z I ••0,11 Va. Based on the results of the various surveys (Visitor, Resident and Downtown Worker), the focus groups sessions, the analysis of the Stillwater Trade Area and the survey of simi- lar communities, a number of development opportunities have been identified. The opportunities are at best only prospec- tive at this time with further analysis necessary to ensure their success. Therefore, we recommend feasibility studies be conducted before any definite development decisions are made. The strategy that we used to develop this final list of development opportunities will now be defined. The recent trend of the CBD economy was considered and the extreme growth in miscellaneous retail suggested that more opportunities exist in this area. Therefore, specialty retail developments that were found in the survey of similar communities that were not found in Stillwater provided the majority of the pool of possible specialty retail develop- ment that we considered. To suppliment this information an on -site survey of Stillwater's CBD retail establishments was conducted in an attempt to identify any obvious gaps in the econany.' Finally, simply brainstorming about possible deve- lopment opportunities aided in rounding out our initial list of retail development opportunities. The list of possible development opportunities was then screened based on the information received fran the various surveys, past reports, and the focus group information. Industry trends were examined when possible to scrutinize any opportunities that were part of a non -growth industry nationally. Opportunities that were part of non -growth industries nationally were eliminated fram the list of poten- tial development opportunities. 61 Ethnic Theme Although the general concensus is that there are already too many eating and drinking places in downtown Stillwater, none of the existing restaurants take advantage of the City's strong ethnic background. ,According to 1980 census data, approximately 16 percent of Stillwater's 12,000 residents are of pure German stock. Scandinavian is the second most prevalent ethnic group with 8 percent of the City's population reporting either a Norwegian or Swedish ancestry. Stillwater, of course, is only a reflection of the Twin Cities Area where German and Scandinavian ethnic groups also prevail. It seems only natural that Stillwater should cultivate this rich heritage, not only by serving ethnic food, but also by featuring more ethnic wares in the numerous gift and spe- cialty shops downtown. Eating and drinking place sales have soared nationally, from $44.6 billion in 1974 to over $124 billion in 1984, an average annual increase of about 16 percent. Likewise, Washington County has experienced significant growth in sales, experiencing a 16 percent increase between 1982 and 1986. Bayport, a small community immediately to the South of Stillwater, added one restaurant and increased sales by 93 percent from 1982 to 1986. In contrast, the number of eating and drinking establishments in Stillwater increased form 41 in 1982 to 54 in 1986, while sales only rose by 2 percent. The City's Economic Development Strategy also suggests that eating and drinking places are at or near market saturation in Stillwater. While this is somewhat discouraging news, the fact remains that growth in this industry is occurring just about everywhere else but Stillwater. Further research on why this is the case maybe warranted to determine whether or not an ethnic restaurant is at all possible. 62 Shoe Store (3,400 sq. ft.) A shoe store was cited by the Focus Group participants and Downtown Worker Survey as a business needed downtown. Presently, there are several stores in Stillwater that sell shoes as part of a full -line of clothing, a few of which are located downtown. However, only two stores soley devote themselves to the sale of footwear, both of which are located outside the CBD. Due to the higher incomes of Stillwater residents (noted earlier in this report) and the affluency of the typical Stillwater visitor, (See Downtown Worker Survey Analysis) a more upscale shoe store maybe well -suited for a downtown location. Such a store would feature a more high-grade pro- duct (i.e. Italian leather) as well as a full -line of hand - sewn leather boots and accessories. The Stillwater Area Economic Development Strategy, completed in June, 1986 indicates that shoe stores in Stillwater might be at or near market saturation, caution, therefore, must be observed in pursuing this opportunity. A feasibility study is strongly reccnmended to ensure that the market for the type of shoe store described above does exist. Children's Specialty Shop (2,000 sq. ft.) Although there are several stores in Stillwater that offer children's clothing as part of a full -line of family clothing and a store that specializes in children's wear near Cub Foods on Highway 36, no store in the CBD sells only children's clothing. 63 According to the Downtown Worker Survey, 40 percent of the respondents believe a store that sells children's clothing is definitely needed while another 33.7 percent indicated it may be needed. Several of the comparison communities, such as Port Washington, Red Wing, Hartford, Sturgeon Bay, West Bend and Cedarburg all have children's specialty stores located within their Central Business Districts. The stores for the most part carry a full -line of childrens clothing for all age groups, including infantwear in sane cases. The prices range from moderate to more expensive merchandise. Theater/Cc munity Building (8,000 - 10,000 sq. ft) A combination movie theater/playhouse and meeting facility offers sane intriguing possibilities for downtown that would appeal to visitors and residents alike. In addition to showing recent or classic motion pictures at the facility, live plays could be performed by Stillwater's own theater company in residence. The Phipps Center for the Arts located in Hudson is a classic example of the latter. The Phipps Center has enjoyed amazing success despite being located just a short distance from Minneapolis/St. Paul, a virtual hot -bed for theater activity. The center not only draws theater -goers fran the Twin Cities, but actors as well. Stillwater too, can take advantage of this nearby market of theater patrons and abundance of actors, plus create another reason for tourists to stay a few days in the City of Stillwater instead of just a one -day visit. The motion pic- tures and the meeting facilities would supplement the theater company revenue improving the financial viability of the business. 64 Currently many foundations in Stillwater support the Phipps Center. Similarly, many of the Phipps workers (i.e. ticket takers, ushers, etc.) hail fran the Stillwater area. This information suggests that the Stillwater area itself could support a theater in the cammunity. Health Food Store/Coffee, Tea Specialty Shop (1,400 sq. ft) Stillwater presently has no store devoted exclusively to the sale of health foods. Given an increasingly more health conscious public, par- ticularly among higher inane earners and more educated individuals, a health food store seems ideal for downtown. To supplement health food sales and improve the viability of such an operation, a coffee/tea specialty shop might also be included. Special herb teas might be featured along with more unusual blends of imported coffee. A shop of this type would be patronized by residents as well as visitors. Non -Alcohol Cooler The popularity of wine coolers (mixtures of fruit juice or soda and wine) has grown tremendously in the U.S. in recent years with sales increasing by more than 60 percent. Four firms, Gallo (Barttles and James), Brown Formarn, Canadiagua, and Seagrams dominate the wine cooler market, accounting for roughly 75 percent of all sales. 65 While competition for the wine cooler market is rather fierce, the non -alcohol cooler market has few participants, most of which are smaller firms serving regional or area markets. One such canpany is Door County Orchards Inc. located in Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin. Since the market segment Door County serves is relatively small the bigger firms like Gallo have shown little interest. Door County Orchards produce Door County Cooler, a carbonated fruit juice beverage that is marketed primarily in Eastern Wisconsin and the Chicago Area. The product is closely asso- ciated with the scenic tourist area of Door county, but also takes advantage of the trend toward more health consious foods. A majority of the apples and cherries used in produc- tion are obtained locally fran their own orchard and others nearby. Other fruit juices such as cranberry and rasberry are received in concentrate form from fruit processors in either Eagle River, Wisconsin or Lower Michigan. Stillwater should research the possibility of manufacturing its own brand of non -alcohol cooler. There is considerable apple production nearby and the Minneapolis/St. Paul SMSA would be a logical market initially, for the beverage. Through effective marketing, a strong association of the cooler with historic Stillwater and the beautiful St. Croix River Valley could be established, much the same as Aamodt's Apple Syrup enjoys now. To be consistant with the City's present theme, "Rivertown Cooler" might be an appropriate name for this product. Floral Shop (1,000 sq. ft.) Despite the fact that a floral shop recently closed in The Grand Garage, a store of this type remains a prime prospect for downtown. Currently, there are four floral shops operating in Stillwater, all of which are located outside the CBD. While there is some doubt whether the local trade area can support another florist an additional shop downtown would appeal mostly to visitors complementing existing tourist -related businesses. Typical of most flower shops the business would offer fresh and silk flower arrangements, green and blooming plants and other related gift items, but would be more slanted toward non -local purchases. The Downtown Workers Survey lends same support to this recom- mendation with 24.2 percent of the respondents indicating a floral shop is definitely needed downtown. Another 33.7 per- cent thought it might be needed. Their support is more an indication of local demand, of course, than non -local. Certainly, some local support would be necessary to survive the fall and winter months. Eight out of the 11 comparison communities visited have floral shops downtown. Marina Store (6,000 sq. ft) Based on the results of the resident survey, the least impor- tant improvement to the CBD of those listed is the expansion of the Stillwater Yacht Club. However, the recreational boaters in the area do provide a somewhat captive market that could be targeted in an attempt to increase sales in the CBD. Retail sales in boating and related accessories increased about 5-6 percent in 1986 due primarily to declines in interest rates and fuel prices, along with steady but slow growth in the economy overall. This 5-6 percent growth rate is expected to continue through 1987 and beyond. 67 This growth in boating could be exploited at the local level by expanding the accessories and services provided to boaters who permanently dock in the City of Stillwater as well as those boaters who temporarily dock in the City for shorter terms. Presently, the Stillwater Yacht Club has a limited "ships store". This type of development could be expanded to include not only boating hardware and accessories but also nautical fashions and footware. Such a retail establishment could serve not only the boating public but also tourists and residents alike if items such as "deck" shoes and other more upscale fashions and accessories as well as more traditional boating fare (i.e. hardware, rope, maps and charts, etc.) are featured. Also additional temporary tie ups more centrally located along the St. Croix River in the CBD should be encouraged to provide convenient access by boaters to the unique shops and restaurants located in the downtown. As the existing Stillwater Yacht Club is located on the north end of the City which is slated for development, an expanded ships store would provide a unique retail and service base as a part of that development. In an attempt to increase activity on the north end and to improve the likelihood of success of the marina store the business should be expanded to provide various rental oppor- tunities. For example, cross country skis and snow shoes could be rented in winter months with bikes and perhaps roller skates being rented in the summer. Various upscale seasonal clothing for sports other than just boating could add to the development of a well rounded and successful busi- ness with the marina store as a foundation. Laundromat (1,700 sq. ft) A self-service coin -operated laundramat is needed downtown to serve residents and boaters alike. According to the City's Economic Development Strategy, Stillwater has below average employment levels in Laundry Cleaning and Garment Services when compared to communities of similar size. This opportunity is further documented uti- lizing the analytical technique known as Threshold Analysis. Threshold analysis is a means of documenting the need for additional laundromats, locally. Similar to the tech- nique used in the Economic Development Strategy, threshold analysis measures the minimual population needed to support a specific number of establishments of a particular business type. To determine the threshold a random sample of cities in Wisconsin was conducted by the Small Business Feasibility Center -University of Wisconsin. The survey revealed that only 649 residents are needed to support one laundromat in a community, with a population of 5,865 necessary to support two. Since Stillwater's Trade Area population is estimated at approximately 28,000, and the City currently has only one self-service coin -operated laundromat a second business of this type appears feasible. A laundromat downtown would not only serve residents but boaters from area marinas as well. Hospitality Center and Local Coordinator (1,500 sq. ft) As a first step at attempting to tie the newly developing north end and highly developed south end of the City together a hospitality center could be located at the north end of the City, possibly at the territorial prison site. .• The purpose of the center and its director would be to promote and coordinate day trips by groups. The facility would need a large parking area to accommodate buses and at least one shuttle bus to relay tourists to their destinations in town. Stillwater has the unique advantage of providing many dif- ferent destination attractions: the Zephyr; the riverboat; the antiques district; the south end merchants; the Lowell Inn; and a museum. We believe business could be significantly increased if a Stillwater Hospitality Coordinator had the responsibility of contacting those travel agencies that have day tours (and those that have extended coach tours, who might stop in Stillwater to eat at the Lowell Inn, the Zephyr, or the riverboat), senior citizens' groups and other groups (Garden Clubs, or whatever) describing the many attractions of Stillwater. The hospitality center would coordinate arrival and departure times for groups and facili- tate their reaching the desired attractions. The center could, for example, deliver a group to the Lowell Inn around noon (where and when they would be expected) and then pick than up and deliver them to the retail area on the south side (Brick Alley, Tamarak, and adjacent building and businesses) later, finally returning then to the hospitality center to ride their own bus back hone. By having the hospitality center facilitate and coordinate these activities, attractions would be less likely to be overloaded and some of the good, but lesser -known attractions (Aamodt's and the riverboat for dining) would receive more exposure. Also, groups arriving for a single attraction could became aware of the other attractions and, hopefully, return at a later date. 70 A fleet of trolleys or double -decked English style buses could make the shuttle service an exerience itself. The buses of incoming groups would have a parking area away from downtown and would not be needed during the day, reducing confusion and congestion. The cost of this proposed hospitality center and director as will other marketing efforts could be offset by imposing a transient roan tax on local hotel rooms. In this way the visitors themselves would help offset the cost of developing a coordinated marketing effort geared toward the tourist market. Artist's Village (8,000 - 10,000 sq. ft.) Stillwater currently has a number of art galleries and various craft shops that appeal mostly to the visitor. Several of these businesses are located on the north end of the CBD while the number and type of these shops is not in question their location relating to other similar shops in the City is. A more synergistic draw of visitor dollars may be possible if a number of these shops and galleries were to be located in a single building similar to an arts and crafts shopping center. Visitors would welcome this agglomeration as an oppor- tunity to view the different offerings and make their selec- tion. The Staples Mill development on the downtown's north end is similar in concept to an "Artist's Village", but it does not have the concentration of shops found in similar communities. Cederberg, in particular, has several examples of this con- cept with others located in West Bend, Galena, and Door County. 71 Rent would need to be affordable for such use. Therefore, an older structure that could be cheaply renovated would be ideal situation. Hotel Development A mixed use upscale hotel/meeting roan/retail development is proposed as an anchor for the development of Stillwater's north end. The north end physically has ample reasonably priced vacant or under utilized land for such a development. The rationale for suggesting this type of mixed use hotel development follows. To determine the demand for hotel space in the City of Stillwater, the hotel roans per capita in selected comparison ca munities were compared to the per capita hotel roans in the City of Stillwater. This comparison is shown in Table 8. Table 8 Canparison of Hotel Roans Per Capita For Selected Cannuities # Roans Population Ratio Persons Per Roam Stillwater, MN 83 12,290 f 148 Red Wing, MN 60 13,736 228 Galena, IL 229 3,876 17 Sturgeon Bay, WI 118 8,847 75 Port Washington, WI 60 8,612 144 Sister Bay, WI 71 564 8 Bailys Harbor, WI 96 615 6 Hudson, WI 105 5,434 52 West Bend 99 21,484 217 Average persons per roan 99.44 * Not including B & B establishments. Source: Hotel and Motel Red Book, 97th Annual Edition, Current May 1983 through April 1984. American Hotel Association Directory Corporation. 72 As shown in Table 8, the average persons per room is 99. Stillwater has about 148 persons per rooms based on this can- parison. Galena Illinois often sited as a comparison can- munity has about 17 persons per roan. Of course Galena is presently more dependent on tourism than the City of Stillwater. Searching the person per .roan figures one can identify those communities to which tourism plays a very significant role, i.e. those communities with very low person per roan statistics. The focus group session produced the suggestion that a hotel would be an acceptable development for the north end. There was also considerable support for retail and office space as good north end development opportunities. Therefore, we suggested a mixed use development that would increase the number of rooms per capita while allowing for sane meeting space as will as first floor retail development. To further support such a development, Phase I of the Economic Development Strategy suggested that when compared nationally, Stillwater had less Employment in the hotel/motel industry than would be expected even to meet its own needs. More hotel space could be the cornerstone of the City of Stillwater's efforts to expand its penetration of the tourist market. The increase in the hotel rooms would encourage longer visits to Stillwater by tourists which encourages them to spend more dollars in the community. One question raised about the wisdom of developing more hotel space in the City of Stillwater was that so many visitors to Stillwater live so close, that convincing then to staying overnight would be difficult. Therefore, the origin of visi- tors who were intending on staying overnight in Stillwater was determined through crosstabulation. The results of this analysis are shown in Table 9. 73 Table 9 Origin of Overnight Visitors Minn/St. Paul Western Metro Area Wisconsin Minnesota O-O-State % Staying Overnight in Stillwater 54% 0 7.6% 37.5% Source: Visitor Survey, August 1987. As shown in Table 9 over one half of those visitors staying overnight are from the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. As almost 70 percent of the visitors to Stillwater are from the Twin Cities, an ample market for additional hotel space seems to exist. The visitor survey suggested that bed & breakfast establish- ments were the most favored type of overnight accommodation. However, after discussing the B & B situation with several managers of such establishments, it was determined that until the existing B & B's can build their clientelle to a more stable level, more B & B establishments are not recommended at this time. The hotel development that we recommend includes fram 50 to 100 rooms. The addition of 100 roams to the City of Stillwater would only decrease the City's person per hotel roan figure fran 148 to 67. That would bring Stillwater's rooms per capita figure more into line with other communities which offer both industry and tourism (i.e. Sturgeon Bay, WI, 75 persons per room). 74 Along with the hotel development, we recamiend sane retail development. Perhaps one or more of the retail development opportunities included in this report could be prospective tenants. However, the square footage of additional retail that should be associated with the proposed hotel development will be dependent on the number of hotel units developed as well as the location of the new development. Therefore square footage recommendations will not be made at this time. Finally, we suggest the development of a hotel on Stillwater's north end only if at least one of the two pro- posed hotel developments (Radisson, and expansion in the case of the Lowell Inn) do not take place. If the Radisson Hotel (100 units) is developed along with the 80 room expansion of the historic Lowell Inn, development of yet another hotel in the near future is not recommended. Gourmet Food Shop (1,400 sq. ft.) Based on the model of a highly successful development in Door County, WI, a gourmet food shop is being recommended as a development opportunity for Stillwater's CBD. The danographic characteristics of the local population as well as of visitors to the area suggest that a gourmet food shop is a development that could be supported in Stillwater. There has been tremendous growth in the area of specialty food and drink items, especially among the so called "baby boon" generation. The growing purchasing power of the "baby boon" generation and a generally favorable economic outlook over the next few years contribute to a favorable outlook for all types of food retailers. And although the U.S. popula- tion is not expected to increase more than 1 percent annually, improving disposable income will support continued growth in the food retailing industry at all levels. 75 According to one econanic consultant, by 1995 more than twice as many households currently headed by persons 25 to 35 years of age will have annual incomes of over $50,000 measured in constant dollars. Certainly the higher inane, higher edu cated visitors and residents of Stillwater fit the descrip- tion of persons attracted to a gourmet food shop. The success of a gourmet food store in the City of Stillwater will be enhanced if the store can develop a marketing stra- tegy and product line that appeals to both local residents and visitors alike. About three quarters of all large gro- cery stores now have either gourmet or low -calorie food departments, further substantiating the popularity of such items among consumers. rnnel i tG i nn The development opportunities identified in this report suggest that the Stillwater CBD can support approximately 25,000 sq. ft. of retail space and about 13,000 sq. ft. of service related space. These square footages represent gross leasable space. 76